12. J. D. Mahlman, "Uncertainties in Projections of Human-Caused Climate Warming," Science, 278, 1416-1417 (21 Nov 97).Using the 1996 IPCC Working Group I Assessment as his starting point, Mahlman categorizes statements about human-induced climate warming as follows: 1) "Virtually Certain 'Facts,'" 2) "Virtually Certain Projections" (greater than 99% chance of coming true within predicted range), 3) "Very Probable Projections" (greater than 90% chance of coming true within predicted range), 4) "Probable Projections" (greater than 2/3 chance of coming true), and 5) "Incorrect Projections and Policy Implications." He claims his evaluation to be "policy independent," designed to provide clarification for policy debate.
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