Maddox: the Future of Science

Maddox: the Future of Science

by Irma S. Jarcho

John Maddox, What Remains to Be Discovered: Mapping the Secrets of the Universe, the Origins of Life, and the Future of the Human Race (Free Press, New York, 1999). 434 pp. ISBN 0-684-82292-X.

The first thing that must be said about this book is that it is an intellectual tour de force. Not unexpected from a man who for 23 years was the editor of the premier science journal in the world -Nature. This privileged position brought him into contact with leading scientists in every field, all over the world. Which may explain the breadth of his knowledge and the range of his expertise.
The second thing that must be said is that this is not a book for the general reader, the casual reader. Maddox plunges into every facet of modern science -- cosmology, relativity and quantum mechanics, the puzzles concerning the formation of galaxies, the origin of life, the latest findings in genetics and the importance of the Genome Project, evolution, computers, and the possibility of impact catastrophe from asteroids or comets and how they could be warded off. Convinced?
I consider myself a scientifically literate person, but my expertise, such as it is, lies in biology, not physics. So that some of the chapters on modern physics were, shall we say, rough going? Despite the difficulty, it is a rewarding book for anyone interested in what lies ahead in science -- any branch of science.
The book is organized in three sections, after a preface and an introduction. In the Introduction Maddox delineates the outline of "What Remains to Be Discovered" if it had been written in 1900 instead of virtually a century later. What has energy to do with matter? What is space made of? What is ether? A redefinition of space and time was needed. The discovery of the electron and of radioactivity would have been prominent features of the 1900 book.
Part One: Matter deals with "the origins of the universe and of matter . . . as well as the prospects for a theory of everything." As noted, this cosmology and physics section demands from the reader good basic knowledge of the latest advances in cosmology and particle physics. It discusses, in extenso, the approaches that may elucidate the myriad questions still unresolved in these fields. It is, as noted, an extensive review. The Big Bang, background radiation, Hubble's Law, quasars, black holes, critical density, QED, QCD, GED, GUT, string theory, and so ad infinitum.
Part Two: Life begins by observing that we know when life appeared on Earth, but not why. The first chapter of this section is a good summary of possible explanations for this phenomenon. Maddox points out all the difficulties involved in converting inanimate matter to self-replicating life. His discussion of the theory of panspermia -- the idea that life originated elsewhere in the solar system -- is particularly telling. As he points out, the theory does not explain the origin of life but merely displaces it elsewhere! Maddox characterizes life as not merely universal but ubiquitous.
There is long discussion of the discovery of the structure of DNA and of its functioning and importance. This segues naturally into a chapter on the genome, how it works, how the genome is inherited, the question of junk DNA, defects in genes, and their consequences. Maddox rails against the misunderstanding of genetics which is riven with controversy, including the problems with eugenics -- positive eugenics is impracticable; negative or passive eugenics, as he puts it, is here to stay. Witness genetic counseling and amniocentesis.
Maddox's presentation of Darwin's theory of evolution is masterful. He points out how it is misrepresented, the controversies it has given rise to, and the factors whose interplay affect the development of a species. Of particular interest is the discussion of the chromosome numbers in the great apes (48) and humans (46).
Part Three: Our World includes a catchall of a great many topics of interest. The first is the structure and function of the human brain and what has to be elucidated before a complete understanding of this incredible organ is achieved.
The chapter on mathematics, "The Numbers Game," is, I am embarrassed to admit, extremely difficult for a nonmathematician. There is no question that modern mathematics greatly contributes to our understanding of problems in physics and biology. There is long discussion of nonlinear equations and their importance. According to Maddox, most of the practical problems arising in the real world are nonlinear problems.
The last chapter in this section was, to me, perhaps the most interesting. The possibility that "sustainable development" is not achievable and may entail the extinction of the species. The problems posed by new and emerging diseases and the possibility that there may be a virus or bacterium with the potential to kill a major portion of the human race. Global warming in the delineation of which he points out the possibility that even a small increase in temperature will be significant and economically important. Agriculture would be affected. Sea level would rise. Although Maddox admits that global warming is not proven, he is of the conviction that it is in the cards.
Lastly, Maddox discusses the very real possibility of an impact catastrophe, whose effects will be in direct relation to the size of the impactor, be it comet or asteroid. As we now know, Earth has faced this catastrophe before. Accurate estimates are not possible, but Maddox urges that international vigilance to chart these near-Earth objects and an international treaty to discuss a course of action to deflect the impactor before it reaches Earth are needed.
In his "Conclusion" Maddox reviews all that remains to be done and characterizes the problems that remain as Gargantuan. Detailed notes on the chapters and an extensive index round out this interesting and useful overview of what remains to be done -- in every field of science. The accompanying box contains quotations from the book directly related to the work that lies ahead. Generations to come will be involved in the elucidation of these mysteries -- and others we do not yet perceive.
Quotations from John Maddox, What Remains to Be Discovered, focusing on work to be done
Part One

Despite assertions to the contrary, the lode of discovery is far from worked out.
The record of previous centuries suggests that the excitement in the years ahead will spring from the answers to the questions we do not yet know enough to ask.
The river of discovery will continue to flow without cessation, deepening our discovery of the world and enhancing our capacity to forfend calamity and lead congenial lives.
The continuing search for the "missing mass" to close the universe is the modern equivalent of the search for . . . ether a century ago.
The prudent answer to the question "How did the universe begin?" is that we do not yet know.
The most urgent need is to verify, or if necessary modify, Hubble's law.
The ambition to find a unifying language for all four of the interactions between particles of matter is unfulfilled.
. . . the goal to account for the properties of all these particles by some natural law? That remains in limbo.
Particle physics, which has recently made common cause with cosmology, will soon be wrestling with the meaning of space and time -- in theory and the laboratory.
The status of these objects [black holes] will not be settled until there has been substantial progress in making a bridge between Einstein's theory of gravitation and the rules and regulations of quantum mechanics.
. . . there is a sense that the reason why the quantum gravity project is becalmed is not simply mathematical but that the problem to be solved is not yet fully understood. If "new physics" springs from anywhere, it will be from that formidable challenge.
It will be time enough to talk about a theory of everything when we know what everything is.
Part Two

. . . we will know more about when and how life began when we achieve the replication of processes that might lead to the formation of living things.
If, as seems likely, the odds against the emergence of life on Earth are not nearly as great as previously supposed, it will be only a matter of time before living things are found elsewhere in the galaxy.
Why does nature use in the construction of its biochemistry machines some chemicals but not others very like them?
The ultimate goal is an account of what prebiotic evolution was like together with laboratory demonstrations of its plausibility.
In the search for an understanding of life, science now is pushing at an open door.
The central problem of cell biology now is not so much the gathering of information but the comprehension of it.
In principle, development from embryo to adult is now understood. It remains to understand what exactly happens.
. . . molecular biology has created a huge amount of data, all potentially interlinked. Intricacy abounds, but what is to be done to make the data intelligible?
One of the most urgent needs is to make comprehensible the complexities of the response of cells to external influences.
The more serious difficulty could be the need for detailed knowledge, which would have to be collected by experiment, of the interactions of real-life molecules with each other.
. . . the longer ignorance of how protein molecules function persists, the more like a scandal it will seem.
. . . may the very large number of repetitive elements in the human genome betoken some kind of long term instability? To this legitimate and somewhat alarming question -- there is no answer yet.
. . . the speed with which the mechanisms of many types of cancer are now being understood raises the prospect that the coming decades will see ways of sniffing out many kinds of tumors that cannot now to treated.
Perhaps the biggest prize in genetics will come from the comparison of the genomes of more or less distantly related organisms which will make it possible to reconstruct the history of evolution.
[Darwin] . . . did very little to deepen understanding of what it advertised as its central theme -- the origin of species. And that remains a problem unresolved.
. . . not much is yet known of the functions of the genes in the X and Y chromosomes, or of the influence on them of genes located elsewhere, let alone of how the sex chromosomes influence the others.
Much more must be learned of the course of evolution before it is known how (rather than why) sexual reproduction evolved.
. . . as the decades pass, we shall learn when important adaptations, say sexual reproduction, made their first appearance and how.
. . . it should be possible to infer the structure of the ancestral DNA.
Part Three

Yet the cruel truth is that the central objective of the now majestic research program in neuroscience remains beyond reach: there is only the most shaky understanding of how the brain, and the human brain particularly, engenders mind -- the capacity to reflect on past events, to think, and to imagine.
. . . The people who have seemed to be answering important questions have been asking them instead. The list of what needs to be explained is long.
The details of the apparently autonomous self-assembly of the brain are now being worked out, in all their intricacy, by the techniques of molecular genetics.
The question of when (and how) what is now the human language center became a unilateral or one-sided structure has particular interest.
The question of whether the nervous system is in principle renewable will be settled only when there has been a systematic search for stem cells . . . from which neurons might be regenerated.
Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately) there will be no quick answers to the question of the neural correlates of consciousness.
The purpose of this book is to demonstrate that science, far from being at an end, has a long agenda ahead of it.
The need is for a detailed understanding of the mechanism by which new strains or even species of microorganisms have emerged.
At some point there will have to be a halt to the emission of greenhouse gases. . . . When will that time be? Only two answers make sense: "Now!" and "Yesterday!"
The case for knowing what projectiles are in near-Earth orbits is compelling.
The case for a properly constituted international organization for collecting, maintaining, and analysing data on the orbits of extra-terrestrial objects is unshakable.
In reality, there is no reason why any of the potential calamities now foreseen, even the most scary among them, cannot be avoided. But avoidance requires vigilance and courage. Will we have enough?
Understanding how the brain works is, unfortunately, a more distant goal.
We are a long way from the time when the neural circuits responsible for the so-called higher functions of the human brain . . . have been identified.
A century from now, people will be occupied with questions we do not yet have the wit to ask.
The understanding of life that has followed from the structure of DNA ensures that the century ahead will be transformed by engineered forms of plants and animals, and by different and more effective human medicines.
There is no question that science and its application will be even more conspicuous in the centuries ahead than they have been in this century.
The problems that remain are Gargantuan. They will occupy our children and their children and on and on for centuries to come, and perhaps even for the rest of time.

Home Fall 99 Full Screen

The TEACHERS CLEARINGHOUSE FOR SCIENCE AND SOCIETY EDUCATION