3. Stephen E. Schwartz and Meinrat O. Andreae, "Uncertainty in Climate Change Caused by Aerosols," Science, 272, 1121-1122 (24 May 96).
Aerosols restrict visibility and whiten the sky. They also counteract the atmospheric warming from greenhouse gases, but the magnitude of this effect is uncertain. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change, "If the magnitude of aerosol forcing is at the low end of the uncertainty range, aerosols are negating only a small fraction of the greenhouse forcing. However, if the aerosol forcing is at the high end of the uncertainty range, aerosols could be negating virtually all of the present greenhouse forcing." Because of the critical difference between these two endpoints of uncertainty, the authors argue that a recent National Research Council report does not give high enough priority to resolving the uncertainty.
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